The roles played by environmental factors in seasonal changes in microbial populations were investigated in the Tvärminne area, off the southern coast of Finland. Surface-layer samples were collected at 1- or 2-week intervals in 1976-78, and 14 microbiological and 10 environmental parameters were determined. Stepwise multiple regression analysis was used to explain seasonal variation in the microbiological parameters. Separate analyses were made of the data from the open-water and ice-cover periods. In analyses of data from both periods, the environmental factors included accounted for a significant proportion of the variation in the parameters for community respiration (90%) and bacterial spores (80%), and a smaller proportion (60 to 65%) of the variation in total counts of bacteria and plate counts of psychrophiles and yeasts. Lower values (40 to 55%) were obtained for the variation in the other microbiological parameters. The environmental factors with maximal contributions were organic matter, water temperature, chlorophyll a, and salinity, but rainfall and winds also explained part of the variation in some microbiological parameters. In the winter analysis the results differed from those obtained for the other seasons, the variation being governed by parameters indicating freshwater outflows, namely, humic matter, salinity, water temperature (positive regression coefficient), and rainfall (negative regression coefficient).
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