False-positive results obtained from the branch-site test of positive selection.

Natural selection operating at the amino acid sequence level can be detected by comparing the rates of synonymous (r(S)) and nonsynonymous (r(N)) nucleotide substitutions, where r(N)/r(S) (omega) > 1 and omega < 1 suggest positive and negative selection, respectively. The branch-site test has been developed for detecting positive selection operating at a group of amino acid sites for a pre-specified (foreground) branch of a phylogenetic tree by taking into account the heterogeneity of omega among sites and branches. Here the performance of the branch-site test was examined by computer simulation, with special reference to the false-positive rate when the divergence of the sequences analyzed was small. The false-positive rate was found to inflate when the assumptions made on the omega values for the foreground and other (background) branches in the branch-site test were violated. In addition, under a similar condition, false-positive results were often obtained even when Bonferroni correction was conducted and the false-discovery rate was controlled in a large-scale analysis. False-positive results were also obtained even when the number of nonsynonymous substitutions for the foreground branch was smaller than the minimum value required for detecting positive selection. The existence of a codon site with a possibility of occurrence of multiple nonsynonymous substitutions for the foreground branch often caused the branch-site test to falsely identify positive selection. In the re-analysis of orthologous trios of protein-coding genes from humans, chimpanzees, and macaques, most of the genes previously identified to be positively selected for the human or chimpanzee branch by the branch-site test contained such a codon site, suggesting a possibility that a significant fraction of these genes are false-positives.