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PMID: 25446971 Published · ppublish English Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Statistical methods for meta-analyses including information from studies without any events-add nothing to nothing and succeed nevertheless.

Statistics in medicine ·Vol. 34 ·No. 7 ·2015-03-30 ·Pages 1097-116

Kuss O

Abstract

Meta-analyses with rare events, especially those that include studies with no event in one ('single-zero') or even both ('double-zero') treatment arms, are still a statistical challenge. In the case of double-zero studies, researchers in general delete these studies or use continuity corrections to avoid them. A number of arguments against both options has been given, and statistical methods that use the information from double-zero studies without using continuity corrections have been proposed. In this paper, we collect them and compare them by simulation. This simulation study tries to mirror real-life situations as completely as possible by deriving true underlying parameters from empirical data on actually performed meta-analyses. It is shown that for each of the commonly encountered effect estimators valid statistical methods are available that use the information from double-zero studies without using continuity corrections. Interestingly, all of them are truly random effects models, and so also the current standard method for very sparse data as recommended from the Cochrane collaboration, the Yusuf-Peto odds ratio, can be improved on. For actual analysis, we recommend to use beta-binomial regression methods to arrive at summary estimates for the odds ratio, the relative risk, or the risk difference. Methods that ignore information from double-zero studies or use continuity corrections should no longer be used. We illustrate the situation with an example where the original analysis ignores 35 double-zero studies, and a superior analysis discovers a clinically relevant advantage of off-pump surgery in coronary artery bypass grafting.

Keywords
continuity correction meta-analysis rare events safety sparse data
MeSH Terms
Biostatistics/methods Computer Simulation Coronary Artery Bypass/adverse effects Coronary Artery Bypass, Off-Pump/adverse effects Humans Meta-Analysis as Topic Models, Statistical Myocardial Ischemia/surgery Odds Ratio Postoperative Complications/etiology Stroke/etiology
Authors & Affiliations
1 authors, click to expand affiliations / ORCID
Kuss O
Institute for Biometry and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center, Leibniz Institute for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Article Info
Journal
Statistics in medicine
Abbr.
Stat Med
ISSN
1097-0258
Published
2015-03-30
Epub
2014-00-01
Pages
1097-116
Language
English
Region
England
NLM ID
8215016
Subset
IM
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