Sustaining food self-sufficiency of a nation: The case of Sri Lankan rice production and related water and fertilizer demands.

Rising human demand and climatic variability have created greater uncertainty regarding global food trade and its effects on the food security of nations. To reduce reliance on imported food, many countries have focused on increasing their domestic food production in recent years. With clear goals for the complete self-sufficiency of rice production, Sri Lanka provides an ideal case study for examining the projected growth in domestic rice supply, how this compares to future national demand, and what the associated impacts from water and fertilizer demands may be. Using national rice statistics and estimates of intensification, this study finds that improvements in rice production can feed 25.3 million Sri Lankans (compared to a projected population of 23.8 million people) by 2050. However, to achieve this growth, consumptive water use and nitrogen fertilizer application may need to increase by as much as 69 and 23 %, respectively. This assessment demonstrates that targets for maintaining self-sufficiency should better incorporate avenues for improving resource use efficiency.