Population-specific modelling of between/within-subject flow variability in the carotid arteries of the elderly.

Computational fluid dynamics models are increasingly proposed for assisting the diagnosis and management of vascular diseases. Ideally, patient-specific flow measurements are used to impose flow boundary conditions. When patient-specific flow measurements are unavailable, mean values of flow measurements across small cohorts are used as normative values. In reality, both the between-subjects and within-subject flow variabilities are large. Consequently, neither one-shot flow measurements nor mean values across a cohort are truly indicative of the flow regime in a given person. We develop models for both the between-subjects and within-subject variability of internal carotid flow. A log-linear mixed effects model is combined with a Gaussian process to model the between-subjects flow variability, while a lumped parameter model of cerebral autoregulation is used to model the within-subject flow variability in response to heart rate and blood pressure changes. The model parameters are identified from carotid ultrasound measurements in a cohort of 103 elderly volunteers. We use the models to study intracranial aneurysm flow in 54 subjects under rest and exercise and conclude that OSI, a common wall shear-stress derived quantity in vascular CFD studies, may be too sensitive to flow fluctuations to be a reliable biomarker.