Multi-State Modeling of Pressure Injury Staging Transition Trajectories to Inform Next-Generation Clinical Decision Support.

This study aimed to evaluate the location-specific and time-sensitive trajectories of pressure injuries (PrIs) stages using real-world electronic health record (EHR) datasets. Using a dataset of 29,475 patients with records of PrIs documented from 2015 to 2023, we developed four PrI patient sub-cohorts with common PrI locations, including coccyx, buttocks, sacrum and heel. We estimated transition intensities between three PrI states: stage 1, stage 2, and a severe stage in each group. Stages and transition paths were derived from domain knowledge provided by clinical experts and The National PrI Advisory Panel (NPIAP) guidelines. The trajectory analysis suggested that stage 2 serves as a "gateway state" in all four locations, meaning that once a PrI reaches stage 2, the likelihood of transiting to severe stages increases significantly. The commonly used Braden Scale and its sub-components are more likely to be associated with transitions from stage 2 to severe stages, suggesting that manual risk assessment tools are suboptimal for predicting early-stage PrI transitions. Further, we observed race-dependent variations across injury location groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to introduce multi-state trajectory analysis in PrI research. Our model can investigate PrI status in a dynamic manner, which fills an important gap in the field. Our findings underscore the lack of time-sensitive information in existing PrI risk assessment tools, revealing a critical gap in their ability to capture the dynamic nature of PrI progression. Clinical decision support using time sensitive data is needed for delivering personalized, timely, and effective PrI prevention.