Construction and validation of a β-hydroxybutyrylation-related molecular model for predicting prognosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) usually has a favorable prognosis, yet a subset of patients develops persistent, recurrent, or biologically aggressive disease. The clinical relevance of lysine β-hydroxybutyrylation (Kbhb)-related transcriptional programs in PTC remains unclear. Accordingly, this study aimed to characterize Kbhb-related molecular heterogeneity in PTC, construct a prognostic signature, and explore its association with the tumor microenvironment (TME). Transcriptomic and clinical data from PTC samples within The Cancer Genome Atlas Thyroid Carcinoma (TCGA-THCA) cohort were analyzed to identify Kbhb-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs), define molecular subtypes, construct a prognostic signature, and characterize tumor microenvironmental features. Single-cell RNA-sequencing data from PTC were further used to explore the cellular distribution of representative genes. We identified 51 Kbhb-related DEGs in PTC and defined two Kbhb molecular subtypes. The Kbhb_C2 subtype showed shorter progression-free interval (PFI) and a more immune- and stroma-enriched microenvironment. A six-gene prognostic signature comprising TARID, CDSN, PIMREG, KLRC1, SYT13, and NPR3 was then established. High-risk patients had significantly worse PFI in the full, training, and testing cohorts, with 1-, 3-, and 5-year areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.715, 0.793, and 0.771, respectively, in the full cohort. High-risk tumors also exhibited higher stromal, immune, and ESTIMATE scores, altered immune infiltration, and increased expression of multiple immune checkpoint molecules. Single-cell analysis confirmed distinct cell-type-specific expression patterns of representative genes. Kbhb-related transcriptional programs define clinically relevant molecular heterogeneity in PTC and are closely associated with prognosis and TME remodeling. The identified six-gene signature provides a biologically interpretable framework for risk stratification in PTC.