Prognosis of hepatitis B virus surface antigen carriers in relation to routine liver function tests: a prospective study.

The employees of the Japan National Railways Co. working in the Tokyo area, comprising 98% men over the age of 40 yr, were examined for hepatitis B virus seromarkers and routine liver function tests (serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, alkaline phosphatase, and zinc turbidity test) and were followed for 5 yr. The examinees included 202 hepatitis B surface antigen carriers, 502 positive for hepatitis B surface antibody, and 2426 negative for both. We found that the frequency of continuously abnormal liver function test was higher in hepatitis B surface antigen carriers compared with noncarriers. Of the 202 carriers, 4 (1.98%) died from hepatocellular carcinoma with or without cirrhosis, whereas in 2928 noncarriers only 2 (0.07%) died from liver diseases unrelated to hepatitis B virus, the difference being 28.3-fold. Three of the 4 who died from hepatocellular carcinoma initially had normal liver function tests. Mortality in carriers with initially normal liver function tests was 44.5 times higher than that in noncarriers with normal tests. Thus, asymptomatic carriers carry a high risk of dying from chronic liver disease. Routine liver function tests appear of limited value in predicting prognosis.