Prognosis of chronic pancreatitis: an international multicenter study. International Pancreatitis Study Group.

The aim of this study was to determine which factors predict mortality in a cohort of patients with chronic alcoholic and nonalcoholic pancreatitis. Patients with chronic pancreatitis are known to have a reduced life expectancy, but the quantitative relationship between various clinical features and survival is unclear. We evaluated survival among 2015 subjects with chronic pancreatitis treated at seven centers located in six countries. Mean age at diagnosis was 46 +/- 13 yr and mean duration of follow-up was 7.4 +/- 6.2 yr. Overall survival at 10 yr was 70% (95% confidence interval (CI), 68-73%) and at 20 yr was 45% (95% CI, 41-49%). Survival was significantly less than in the background population. There were 559 deaths observed among those with chronic pancreatitis compared with an expected number of 157.4, yielding a standardized mortality ratio (SMR) of 3.6 (95% CI, 3.3-3.9). Older subjects and those with alcoholic pancreatitis had a significant reduction in survival. In a multivariate analysis, mortality of middle-aged and older subjects was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.8-2.8) and 6.3 (95% CI, 4.7-8.3) times greater than subjects less than 40 yr at diagnosis. Smoking (hazard ratio, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.9), drinking (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.2), or development of cirrhosis (hazard ratio, 2.5; 95% CI, 2.0-3.2) increased the risk of death during the observation period, but we observed no survival difference in operated vs. nonoperated patients. Age at diagnosis, smoking, and drinking are major predictors of mortality in patients with chronic pancreatitis.